Coinbase, the popular crypto exchange, celebrated better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, partly attributing its success to the launch of ten spot bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, not everyone is convinced of the full impact of this. Kenneth Worthington, an analyst at JPMorgan, expressed skepticism about the perceived benefits of these ETFs in a note on Friday.
JPMorgan analyst’s take on spot BTC ETFs
“While management sees their involvement in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as positive, we’re not entirely convinced of its true earning potential,” Worthington said.
The JP Morgan analyst, Worthington, specifically pointed towards the company’s lack of transparency regarding its business. Particularly its provision of custodial services for eight out of the ten bitcoin ETFs. “Given the media attention and market anticipation for spot Bitcoin ETFs, especially considering Coinbase’s direct involvement and monetization efforts, we were expecting management to offer more comprehensive insights into the economics of their arrangements with issuers,” the note stated.
“Given this lack of detail, we remain skeptical about the true monetization impact of these ETFs and their ability to offset the potential loss of volumes in the spot markets, which we still consider possible,” JPMorgan analyst added.
Despite the criticism, the crypto exchange exceeded Wall Street‘s fourth-quarter estimates. Leading to a surge in shares and a more positive outlook from many analysts.
Coinbase not up to the mark
Some, like Wedbush and JMP Securities, have increased their price targets on the stock, while KBW has upgraded its rating to market performance from a sell-equivalent underperform rating.
Analysts had previously expressed concerns that introducing ETFs with lower trading fees could divert investors away from exchanges like Coinbase. However, Worthington noted Coinbase’s assertion that the ETFs have not significantly shifted client behavior.
He pointed out, “Coinbase alleged that the spot Bitcoin ETF drove no shift in client behavior, and all trading seemed additive to existent spot trading.”
Worthington’s assessment of Coinbase’s stock has fluctuated. While he turned bearish on the stock in January, citing concerns about the ETF catalyst, he upgraded it just before the fourth-quarter earnings announcement due to higher digital asset prices. Despite this upgrade, Worthington maintains a neutral rating on Coinbase’s stock, with a 12-month price target of $95, which is relatively conservative compared to other Wall Street analysts.