Bloomberg analysts have raised the possibility of an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023, crediting this shift to a recent legal victory by Grayscale against the U.S. federal securities regulator. The strong ruling by the United States Court of Appeals Circuit has encouraged experts to revise their estimations, with senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stating that the chances of approval have surged from 65% to 75%.
The court’s decision to reject the SEC’s arguments has made it tough for the agency to stick to its position, making it hard to say no as important dates approach. ETF expert James Seyffart and Elliot Stein, analysts at Bloomberg, highlighted the significance of the court’s rejection in a separate note on August 30. Seyffart further projected that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals could be a “done deal” by the fourth quarter of 2024, with the approval odds reaching an impressive 95% by that time.
Seyffart’s colleague, Eric Balchunas, highlighted that, in light of the recent legal setback and its subsequent negative impact on public perception, a refusal of the Bitcoin ETF by the SEC would be “politically unjustified.”
He emphasized the growing momentum for spot Bitcoin ETF approval, suggesting that the SEC might opt for an unexpected move, potentially approving multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs in a single decision.
If this occurs, as per the report by Todayq News, it is likely to attract more investors from Canada to the US. As Seyffart pointed out earlier, the US has invested money in Canada, and if all spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, the US may experience a significant surge in funds, while Canada may experience an outflow.
In the coming days, the SEC is set to make “first deadline” decisions on seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications. Industry giants like Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie are among the applicants eagerly awaiting the regulatory verdict. Balchunas speculated that while the SEC might consider delaying its decision on these applications, a more likely scenario is a surprise approval for Bitcoin spot ETFs.
The evolving landscape of cryptocurrency regulations, combined with Grayscale’s legal victory, seems to have encouraged the SEC closer to adopting the concept of a spot Bitcoin ETF. With Bloomberg’s analysts now expressing higher confidence in ETF approval, all eyes are on the upcoming decisions and their potential implications for the crypto market and the broader financial landscape.
