Data shows that the supply of Bitcoin (BTC) per whale has been imitating price changes since 2014 and falling since the end of 2021, indicating that whales are liquidating their holdings.
The entire supply of addresses between 100 and 10,000 BTC is divided by the total number of addresses to calculate the supply per whale. This measure considers a broader range of wallet denominations. It can more accurately reflect the consolidation of unspent transaction output (UTXO) or the distribution of big holdings by larger coin holders across multiple addresses.
This indicator is predicted to rise when whales increase their overall holdings and fall when they sell off their stakes.
The data demonstrate that the supply per whale line has followed the BTC price since 2014, despite the whales’ first movements being erratic. The evolution of the price of bitcoin and its supply per whale since 2011 are shown in the chart below.
So when BTC price and supply per whale are compared from the beginning of the year, it can be observed that the supply per whale line started to decline after reaching a precise top in February 2022. The arrangement means whales booked profit right when Bitcoin started falling after its peak in November 2021.
As investors take advantage of the low prices and buy BTC, several on-chain metrics indicate that the bear market bottom is close.
CryptoQuant analysts studied UTXOs between a week and a month for BTC, and they noticed that while the crypto market is absorbing FTX shocks, new signs of BTC accumulation are building up. The analysts used “realized cap- UTXO age bands,” which signifies the percentage of Bitcoin realized cap that a particular age group holds.
In October, Glassnode said that “a true bear market low” was established; however, current volatility, macroeconomic conditions, high hash rates, high mining difficulty, the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and its alleged ‘contagion’ that is spreading throughout the industry has pushed the bear market lows below the line first claimed by the analytics company.
However, a closer look at the Glassnode report reveals that one of the indicators presented was “Total Supply Held by Short-Term Holders [BTC].” Its yearly chart indicated that at the beginning of November, when the price of BTC started falling, the “Short-Term Holder Supply (BTC)” line started going up, breaching several resistance lines. Since 2011, this phenomenon has occurred on six occasions.
One of the most interesting coincidences is when major publications declare ‘crypto is dead’ and Bitcoin falls from its all-time highs— it ironically has been at the bottom of the bear market.
According to 99 Bitcoins, significant magazines pronounced Bitcoin dead 90 times in 2018 and 125 times in 2017, when its price tanked. Because there have been only 22 burials for Bitcoin as of 2022, there is still some distance from this signal to imply the same recovery after every major price drop. It also supports
High mining difficulty and hash rates have made miners anxiously wait for a rise in the price of Bitcoin. According to Todayq News, miners sell 135 percent of the coins they generate. In other words, Bitcoin miners are now tapping their HODL wallets and reserves to offset the monetary pressure of rising electricity costs and falling BTC prices.