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Bitcoin remains stable for now despite US debt default worries

By Samvidha Sharma23 May 2023, 12:00 AM
Bitcoin's price reversals over the years have preceded equity indexes

According to data from Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, the crypto market has become quite mundane in recent times. Reportedly, Bitcoin, the world’s largest crypto by market capitalization has been settling into the tightest price range for months despite the tumultuous activities that were expected to stir the market. 

As suggested by the graph, the range, or the difference between the high and the low reached in the seven days to May 21, was 3.4%. Notably, this suggests the market has continued to remain stable despite the lingering concerns about the stability of U.S. regional banks and the country’s debt ceiling.

Analysts suggest that this is one of the narrowest in the past three years. According to data tracked by analytics firm Glassnode, the current trend is comparable to lackluster trading seen at the start of the year, for a brief moment last month, and in July 2020.

Source: Glassnode

Additionally, in recent times, options-based volatility measures for Bitcoin and Ethereum also hit record lows. Notably, narrow trading ranges indicate that neither bullish nor bearish perspectives dominate the price action. That typically happens when markets face competing influences and narratives. 

While lingering U.S. banking sector issues favor the upside in perceived haven assets like Bitcoin, the unresolved deadlock in debt ceiling negotiations and the recovery in the dollar index suggest otherwise. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount of money that the United States can borrow cumulatively by issuing bonds.

Eventually, some influences take a back seat, leading to a sharp widening of the trading range or a strong move in either direction. Traders typically set up price-agnostic strategies like straddle and strangles when anticipating an exit from tighter trading ranges.

However, another set of data from Glassnode published recently suggested that the network settlement on the Bitcoin networks is “lackluster when compared to the bulls market.” The graph below features the total transfer volume of Bitcoin i.e. the total amount of coins transferred. 

Source: Glassnode

As per data, the total network has declined to a value of $2.73 billion, about 79% lower than that of the 2021 primary bull market which was recorded at $13.1 billion. Notably, there is a clear difference of $10.37 billion between both values. 

Simultaneously, data suggested that the exchange outflows have maintained their traction in recent times and the exchange balance has continued to decline. The Bitcoin exchange balance has fallen below 12%, this is the lowest value achieved since this was first achieved at the beginning of the year.  

Hence, this suggests that the investors are not eager to sell their assets and are looking forward to holding them in the long term. This intention of investors towards the assets also gains a fair share of credibility for the current stability of the market. As of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $26,927.70, which is a 0.65% increase over the day and about a 3.22% decrease over the past month. 

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