Bitcoin, which was once at $67,000, is currently finding it challenging to close over $20,000. Investors are GOING LONG for an escape after the crypto market’s decline, but the cryptocurrency market is also being kept in check by the general bearishness of other markets. Bitcoin’s price has remained unchanged at $19,200 for more than a month, reducing windows of opportunity for profit.
After the failed comeback in September, Bitcoin is again trading at levels that could support a positive bias. Since now is the best possible time, long-term holders may take advantage of this opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin.
In terms of profitability, this year is likely to rank among the worst for the cryptocurrency sector. This is not just Bitcoin’s second capitulation of the year, but also its sixth overall in its 12-year lifespan.
Bitcoin is cozy in the capitulation zone, which it reached for the second time this year alone, according to the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio. BTC initially hit these lows in the crash of June, and it just dropped again in August after falling from $23,000 to $19,000.
Additionally, due to a dearth of optimistic indicators, BTC, which is currently trading at $19,158, has not changed in value in more than a month. BTC is staying below the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA while trading slightly above the $18,600 crucial support level.
This low typically indicates a trend reversal, but it is no longer a given Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with the larger markets. As of last month, there was a 0.59 correlation between the price of bitcoin and the S&P 500 index and a 0.62 correlation between bitcoin and the NASDAQ.
The reserve risk is the only technical indicator that may unquestionably benefit from this circumstance. The Reverse Risk is slightly below the optimal zone of accumulation, which has been the indicator’s residence for the whole year.
Reserve Risk is a cyclical indicator that monitors the balance between risk and reward in relation to the trust and conviction of long-term investors (as per Glassnode). A long-term cyclical oscillator is provided that models the relationship between the current price (a selling incentive) and the long-term investors’ conviction (opportunity cost of not selling).
A Bloomberg expert recently pointed out that the value of most assets is falling due to rising interest rates worldwide, but Bitcoin is outperforming both commodities and tech giants like Tesla.
He added that October has emerged as the best month for Bitcoin (BTC), with gains of almost 20% on average for the month, and that the topping of commodities may be a sign that Bitcoin has reached its bottom.