The recent SEC’s silence regarding the court ruling has resulted in Grayscale’s investment product, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), trading at a discounted price. Currently, GBTC is trading near its two-year low, which was observed in December 2021 when Bitcoin was trading near its all-time high. This discount on GBTC might be due to the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Drastic fall after the spot Bitcoin ETF application
According to data from YChart, it has been observed that the discount of GBTC compared to the net asset value (NAV) of Bitcoin has reduced to 15.87%. The data also shows that the discount on GBTC has been continuously decreasing after the spot Bitcoin ETF application was filed by major asset management firms such as BlackRock, WisdomTree, and others.
In mid-June 2023, before the spot Bitcoin ETF application by these major asset management firms, the discount on GBTC was around 44%. Since the application was filed, this discount has lowered to between 15% and 25% by July 15, 2023. Since then, the discount figure on GBTC has continuously decreased compared to Bitcoin’s net asset value (NAV).
Net asset value (NAV) is a percentage that measures the value or amount by which mutual funds or ETFs are trading below their net asset value. It is used to measure how the security is trading away from its true value.
Expert insights on Grayscale’s GBTC
As of now, several Bitcoin ETF advocates believe that the discount on GBTC might evaporate as the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF nears. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter) on October 13, 2023, Bitcoin advocate Oliver Velez also believes that the market expects approval for a Bitcoin ETF by the end of this year.
However, Grayscale recently made a statement regarding the SEC decision:
“The Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure’s 45-day period to seek rehearing has now passed. The Court will issue its final mandate within seven calendar days. The Grayscale team remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval, and we look forward to sharing more information as soon as practicable.”
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart also made a statement on X: “Done deal, I guess this is accurate. There is no en banc application, and I do not think they will appeal to the Supreme Court either.”