Solana (SOL) has emerged as a key player alongside Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and the recent Exchange Traded Fund filing shows that. VanEck filed for Solana ETF application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This positive move has pushed SOL to print greens amid high selling pressure.
Is Solana pump coming in?
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, showed his confidence in Solana’s potential. However, he compared SOL’s utility with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
As per the report published by GSR, Solana global investment product AUM amounts to 2% of that of Bitcoin. This might underestimate the potential Solana ETF inflows. However, these numbers surely give BTC a large head start. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was launched in around 2013 but Solan was not even launched until 2020.
GSR suggests that the launch of spot Solana ETFs could drive the price of SOL up by a factor of nine. It went on to describe the fifth biggest crypto as part of “crypto’s big three”. GSR is holding a long position on SOL. It arrived at the “8.9x” estimate after assuming that spot ETFs would attract 14% of the inflows seen by spot Bitcoin ETFs.
It is important to note that in its blue sky scenario, Solana could soar to over $1,320. While its market cap could increase to $614 billion.
What are the chances?
SOL is trading at an average price of $142.5, at the press time. It has managed to gain by over 759% over the last one year. Meanwhile, it is down by 15% in the last one month. Its 24 hour trading volume is down by 12% to stand at $2.25 billion. It is holding a market cap of $65.5 billion.
In the bear case and baseline scenarios, the ETFs would capture 2% and 5% of Bitcoin’s inflows. This could still result in price rises of 1.4x and 3.4x for SOL.
The firm noted that these estimates could be even higher if spot Solana ETFs included income from staking rewards. It is important to note that staking wasn’t permitted in the approved spot Ether ETFs. GSR asserted, “Solana is poised for a spot ETF if and when additional spot digital asset ETFs are allowed in the US, and the impact on price may just be the largest yet.”
